Will the Sahm rule recession indicator have a false positive in 2024? | Manifold

Will the Sahm rule recession indicator have a false positive in 2024?

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Resolves YES if the three-month average unemployment rate rises half a percentage point above it's 12 month low (Sahm rule) without the National Bureau of Economic Research declaring a U.S. recession occurred.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-11-07/one-highly-accurate-recession-indicator-could-be-wrong-this-time?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=view&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view&sref=YAR8Qcu4#xj4y7vzkg

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