Will the US economy have a recession in 2024?

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ200 of NO

Made two better specified markets:

Is this a NBER market?

@MP There's a vote downthread on what the criteria will be, in the absence of the creator responding. Only one vote so far


I am re-opening this question and setting it to close at the end of 2024.

If you want to maintain this question over the course of the next year, please provide some criteria you plan to use for resolution.

Anyone else in the comment section: Feel free to share suggested resolution criteria. If the original creator doesn't show up to clarify things, we will use the clearest option.

@Eliza Suggest basing it on NBER pronouncement, which is the official definition of a recession. Modifying the dates from this market, resolution criteria could be:

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.

Close date should be extended to end of 2025 in that case - recession declarations are usually long after the fact, but I'm under the impression a year is reasonable.

@chrisjbillington The other alternative is the "two quarters of negative real GDP growth" definition, which has the disadvantage of being not the official definition but the advantage of resolving sooner.

If you were going for this definition, you'd use official quarterly GDP data, and have to say whether you would factor in revisions or not. For quick resolution, you could say that it resolves YES as soon as any quarterly release, including revisions to previous quarters, indicates two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, otherwise resolves NO after the Q4 2024 release (in early 2025), ignoring revisions made after that release.

@chrisjbillington Thank you for the detailed summary. Because this market has gained significant traction and appears to be distinct from your own, (very) similar market, it seems like it is in the interest of everyone to leave it open at this time.

If the creator doesn't show up within 1 week, then whichever of your two suggestions has more hearts from people participating in the market at that time will become the official criteria and we will adjust the resolution date accordingly.

predicts NO

Looks like this is finalized, but we can't edit the market text to update it with this info. I linked two better specified markets that can be traded instead.

@johnfloydcapitalcom Is this in fact supposed to close already? It seems like it would be more interesting with a resolution closer to end of 2024.

Also, do you have specific data sources or resolution criteria in mind?

Did you mean for this to close at the end of October?