Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?
Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman is president of the United States?
96
1.4kṀ78602033
63%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.
For purposes of this market, "woman" is someone who identifies as a woman at the time of the respective event. If an astronaut or politician walked on the moon or became President of the United States as a man and then identified as transgender after leaving the moon or the Presidency, respectively, then that would not satisfy the criteria (unless they were to return to the moon or regain the presidency).
I will not bet in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will a woman walk on Mars before a woman is president of the United States?
36% chance
Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?
79% chance
Will a women walk on the moon before there is a women majority leader in the senate
72% chance
Conditional on China beating the USA to the Moon, will a female walk on the Moon as part of China's first such mission?
49% chance
Will the US get our first women president before a human lands on Mars
77% chance
Will the next person to set foot on the moon be a woman?
70% chance
Who will be U.S. President before a person next sets foot on the Moon?