Will the New York Times (NYT) achieve a favorable outcome in its copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?
Dec 31

Resolution Criteria

  1. Favorable Outcome Defined: A favorable outcome for the New York Times (NYT) would be defined as meeting at least one of the following conditions:

    • The court rules in favor of the NYT on any of the major claims.

    • OpenAI and/or Microsoft agree to a settlement that involves monetary compensation, content usage changes, or other concessions beneficial to the NYT.

    • The court orders a cease in the use of NYT’s content by OpenAI and Microsoft or demands the destruction of training data that includes NYT content.

  2. Sources of Verification: Official court documents, credible news reports, or direct statements from the parties involved (NYT, OpenAI, Microsoft) will be used to verify the outcome.

  3. Ambiguity Clause: If the outcome is ambiguous or partial (e.g., minor concessions without a clear win for NYT), the question will be resolved as No. Only clear, substantial wins as per the defined criteria will resolve this question as Yes.

  4. Exclusions: Minor procedural wins or losses, interim rulings, or outcomes not directly affecting the central claims of the lawsuit will not count towards resolving this bet.

@SirCryptomind generally has a better understanding of the legal environment and has a very similar market on this if you wish to bet on it:

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Reddit reportedly signed a multi-million content licensing deal with an AI company

  • The company will use Reddit content to train its AI models, Bloomberg says.

Sarah Silverman’s copyright infringement suit against OpenAI will advance in pared-down form

The case’s principal claim, that OpenAI infringed on copyrighted material by training on her works, remains intact.

(Could help with some precedent in other and future cases moving forward)

Currently https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/which-of-these-outcomes-of-the-nyt assessed a 93% chance of "settlement for $10mil or more OR verdict for $1 or more", which is I believe strictly weaker than this (83% until just now). Arbing downward on that side is hard and I'm at my personal limit for arbing this one up, so go nuts.

predicts YES

According to chatgpt these are major claims in the lawsuit:

1. Unauthorized Use of Articles: The New York Times accuses OpenAI and Microsoft of using millions of its articles without permission. These articles were allegedly used to train chatbots and other AI systems, including ChatGPT [oai_citation:1,NY Times sues OpenAI, Microsoft for infringing copyrighted works](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/ny-times-sues-openai-microsoft-infringing-copyrighted-work-2023-12-27/#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Times%20sued,to%20provide%20information%20to%20readers) [oai_citation:2,The New York Times files copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft ...](https://www.techspot.com/news/101345-new-york-times-files-copyright-lawsuit-against-openai.html#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Times%20has,use%20swaths%20of%20information) [oai_citation:3,The New York Times Sues OpenAI and Microsoft for Copyright Infringement ...](https://www.maginative.com/article/the-new-york-times-sues-openai-and-microsoft-for-copyright-infringement-over-use-of-articles-to-train-ai-models/#:~:text=In%20a%20groundbreaking%20legal%20move%2C,as%20a%20reliable%20information%20source).

2. Lack of Compensation: The lawsuit claims that OpenAI and Microsoft did not provide any form of compensation for the use of these articles [oai_citation:4,The New York Times files copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft ...](https://www.techspot.com/news/101345-new-york-times-files-copyright-lawsuit-against-openai.html#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Times%20has,use%20swaths%20of%20information).

3. Impact on NYT's Business: The New York Times argues that the use of its articles to train AI systems directly competes with its role as a reliable information source. This competition could potentially impact the newspaper's ability to deliver its services [oai_citation:5,The New York Times Sues OpenAI and Microsoft for Copyright Infringement ...](https://www.maginative.com/article/the-new-york-times-sues-openai-and-microsoft-for-copyright-infringement-over-use-of-articles-to-train-ai-models/#:~:text=In%20a%20groundbreaking%20legal%20move%2C,as%20a%20reliable%20information%20source) [oai_citation:6,The New York Times has sued OpenAI and Microsoft for copyright ...](https://earnyourleisure.com/news/business/the-new-york-times-has-sued-openai-and-microsoft-for-copyright-infringement/#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Times%20has,This).

4. Damages Claim: While the lawsuit does not specify an exact monetary demand, it asserts that the damages are in the realm of billions of dollars. The New York Times seeks accountability for what it considers the unlawful use of its intellectual property [oai_citation:7,New York Times Sues OpenAI & Microsoft | Copyright Infringement](https://www.analyticsvidhya.com/blog/2023/12/new-york-times-sues-openai-and-microsoft-over-copyright-infringement/#:~:text=The%20New%20York%20Times%20accuses,of%20its%20valuable%20intellectual).

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