Which of these outcomes of the NYT vs. OpenAI lawsuit will occur?
Basic
208
21k
2029
81%
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.
56%
NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.
54%
Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
54%
The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.
49%
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.
48%
The case settles before a verdict is reached.
42%
New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.
35%
Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
32%
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2024.
32%
The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.
30%
New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.
29%
New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.
26%
The case appears before the Supreme Court.
24%
OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.
9%
The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.
6%
The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.
4%
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.
4%
New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.
3%
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.

All options that happen will be resolved YES, all that don't to NO. Any number of them can happen.

Once I see where these trade and how much interest there is I may add additional options, suggestions welcome.

If appeals are not mentioned, then only the verdict is required, whether or not it is upheld or modified on appeal.

If appeals are mentioned, then the final result is what matters.

If the Supreme Court does not hear the case, all "If Supreme Court..." are NO.

(These rules will be added to as additional options require, or to clarify, etc.)

Clarification: Verdict includes any licensing fees agreed upon that are owed based on existing models and past actions, and expected value of royalty payments on existing models, but does not include any future payments pursuant to a licensing or royalty agreement for models not yet released at time of settlement or verdict.

Clarification: Verdict here means final decision of the court in question, includes judges ruling for either side, SC decision, summary judgment or a case dismissal with prejudice.

For "NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.": This would include any partnership or deal that goes beyond OpenAI being allowed to train on NYT sources, allowing OpenAI to quote, link to, provide or otherwise use NYT sources in at least some ways as part of its value proposition.

Modification to my house rules: I will not resolve early until I am >99% certain of a result.

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Is “partnership” limited to versions of “OpenAI gets to train on NYT stuff?” As a knowledge worker I’m way more interested in “NYT gets custom generative AI tool from OpenAI/MSFT that will automate tasks for its content creators.” Come to think of it I mighty like a subscription tier replacing all their extraneous “opinion” writers with AI.

OpenAI has released a statement: https://openai.com/blog/openai-and-journalism

@Pazzaz

Training AI models using publicly available internet materials is fair use, as supported by long-standing and widely accepted precedents.

For research purposes, sure. Not for commercial purposes that harm the market for the original work.

reposted

Reposting as I think this market is a great showcase of how to use multiple choice to delineate the many possible outcomes of an important, upcoming event!

The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.

TBC, is this "the case settles for more than $10M before a verdict is reached?" (I don't think the alternative reading makes sense.)

@CateHall Oh, yes. Modified both that and the $100mm one to be clearer.

Safe to assume that by "verdict" you mean something along the lines of "resolution in court," rather than the actual technical legal meaning?

(A verdict only occurs after a jury trial; the Supreme Court doesn't render verdicts, the district court granting a summary judgment motion would not be a verdict, etc. Assuming you intended the broader sense, I'd probably use "verdict or judgment" here.)

@d__ yes. I will make this clear.

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