Will the United States break out into a civil war first? Or will a third world war break out first?
Resolves to whichever is considered to happen first, according to things like news outlets, Wikipedia, other bets, etc.
For example, if https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un resolves to Yes first, I would most likely resolve this to Yes for Civil War 2:
"Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against some other part of the country. This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian. Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country. It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots.
If https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-bef-293b30c295af resolves to Yes, I would most likely resolve this to Yes for WWIII:
This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2019 and January 1, 2050, both of these conditions are true:
There is a military conflict involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.
At least 10 million people (civillians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.
But of course it's subjective, so I will not bet in this market.