Will there be WW3 before 2100?
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Will resolve as soon as a war involving direct engagement of over 3 continents is considered to be WW3 by the mainstream western media. May resolve yes after 2100 if a war started before (end of) 2100 is called a world war afterwards.
same question but 2045: https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-there-be-ww3-before-2045?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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Learn more.1.00
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