An option will resolve as Yes if by that time a military conflict satisfying the following two conditions starts:

1. Involves countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP in PPP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be "involved" if it satisfies either of the following:

   1. Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).

   2. Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.

2. At least 10 million people (civilians or military personnel) have been killed in the conflict.

PPP will may be determined from the following sources, in order of precedence: IMF, World Bank, United Nations, CIA.

(Above description taken from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/)

Whether simultaneous or overlapping hostilities constitute a single conflict for the purpose of this question will be determined by the consensus of credible sources, including major international news outlets, reference works such as Wikipedia, and established academic conflict datasets (with the Uppsala Conflict Data Program given particular weight). Once linkage is established, the conflict's start date will be set to the earliest combat operation among the component hostilities that end up linked, so a war that began earlier and later merged into the broader conflict counts from its original onset rather than from the date of merger.

I will not trade in this market.