When will World War III happen?
8
200Ṁ8042099
August 18, 2045
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
3%
2025
7%
2026
7%
2027
11%
2028
13%
2029-2035
27%
2036-2045
31%
2046-2100
A world war is a large-scale armed conflict involving several countries on different continents, the political, economic and social consequences of which affect a significant part of the planet.
The main characteristics of a world war are:
-Involvement of numerous countries and coalitions from different regions of the world
-Fighting taking place on several continents or theaters of operations
-Massive mobilization of human, economic and industrial resources
-Global geopolitical repercussions that alter the balance of power
-Humanitarian and social consequences affecting populations on an international scale
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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