Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on whether a conflict widely recognized as "World War III" occurs before January 1, 2100 (23:59:59 UTC). Because this is an independent multiple-choice market, each option resolves independently as follows:

• Yes, before 2050: Resolves YES if an armed conflict meeting the operational definition below begins prior to January 1, 2050 (00:00:00 UTC). Otherwise resolves NO.

• Yes, between 2050 and 2099: Resolves YES if an armed conflict meeting the operational definition below begins between January 1, 2050 (00:00:00 UTC) and December 31, 2099 (23:59:59 UTC). Otherwise resolves NO.

• No, not before 2100: Resolves YES if no armed conflict meeting the definition begins before January 1, 2100 (00:00:00 UTC). Resolves NO if a qualifying conflict occurs prior to that date.

Operational Definition for Resolution: Unless the market creator specifies an alternate dataset or threshold, a qualifying conflict is defined as either:

1. Direct, sustained interstate armed conflict involving at least two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (e.g., United States, China, Russia, United Kingdom, France) against at least one other permanent member, resulting in at least 50,000 battle-related deaths as cataloged by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) or the Correlates of War Project (COW); or

2. Broad, unambiguous consensus across major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and multilateral bodies explicitly designating the conflict as "World War III" or a "Third World War."

Proxy wars without direct, sustained military engagement between great powers do not qualify. In the event of catastrophic civilizational collapse where reporting infrastructure fails, the market will resolve according to available consensus or creator discretion.

Background

• Standard quantitative political science datasets, such as the Correlates of War (COW) and UCDP, define interstate wars based on battle-related fatality thresholds (typically 1,000+ battle deaths per year), while "systemic" or "world" wars historically involve simultaneous direct participation of multiple major powers.

• Prediction platforms and long-term existential risk researchers frequently break conflict forecasting into mid-century (pre-2050) and late-century horizons due to differing technological and geopolitical variables (e.g., nuclear modernization, automated/autonomous warfare, shifting economic hegemony).