Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

Question

This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side.

Sep 29, 9:44pm: added capitulation clause.

Oct 1, 12:37pm: A temporary ceasefire that lasts over a year without casualties, while Russia still occupies the territories in question will resolve market to YES.

Close date updated to 2025-12-23 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2053-12-23 11:59 pm

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 81% chance (262 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).