Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

This market is resolved when a permanent peace treaty is signed between Ukrainian and Russian governments, or the total capitulation of either side.

Sep 29, 9:44pm: added capitulation clause.

Oct 1, 12:37pm: A temporary ceasefire that lasts over a year without casualties, while Russia still occupies the territories in question will resolve market to YES.

Close date updated to 2025-12-23 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2053-12-23 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ15 of NO

I would call them "occupied" lands as opposed to "contested"

@Lorelai the author's spelling shows they are partial to one side...

predicts YES

@Lorelai That would limit the question to land under Russian control.

Just to make sure: a return to the status quo ante (before the 2022 invasion) would count as Ukraine losing contested land, and the market resolving to "yes"?

predicts YES

@PS correct.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-16 has an informative assessment of what areas Ukraine needs to secure to achieve defensible lines against potential future aggression, and as well as other military, strategic, and economic considerations. I.e., even if they were politically willing to accept the loss of some regions, many of them are strategically vital and if Ukraine does not control them then they end up in a much less militarily defensible or economically viable position.

The article says that these military and strategic considerations lead to the conclusion that Ukraine must recapture most of the southeastern area including Kherson and Mariupol to achieve defensible lines. The Donbas region is important for more economic reasons, including the "historically industrial cities of Donetsk, Severodonetsk, and Luhansk". Northeastern Ukraine contains strategically important positions for road and rail networks that are important for Russian mechanized attacks.

Based on my reading of the article, it would seem that parts of the Donbas, especially further east, might not be as vital in terms of the military/strategic/economic considerations. However, the article says that:

Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a future Russian attack requires liberating most of Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts. Ukraine’s economic health requires liberating the rest of Zaporhizia Oblast and much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, including at least some territory Russia seized in 2014

Btw I added a M$250 comment bounty to this question @AntonT that you can award to any comment you deem worthy!

predicts YES

@ian it's not clear how to do that in the interface (mobile). I don't see this as an option in the menu for the comment.

@AntonT Oh this feature was removed, sorry!

sold Ṁ167 of NO

@AntonT market currently closes at the end of the year. What happens if the conflict is still going - market extension or NO resolution? (aka are you waiting for some cease fire or peace treaty to resolve either way, or can the question essentially time out?)

@MattP You are right. Since it doesn't appear possible to change the date, the market will expire after a year. I don't know if it would be possible to extend

predicts NO

@AntonT Click on the close date to change it.

predicts NO

@AntonT If you change the "close by" date, then you change the question substantially. In the future, please specify a date by which a question will resolve as part of any future question that you pose.

predicts NO

@belikewater That's true in general, but Anton did specify when the question resolves: when the countries sign a piece treaty or either side capitulates or there is a ceasefire lasting a year without casualties.

@MattP Mute point, as I see no way to change the end date. It's not editable. The initial question had a one year time frame, so I guess that's why I didn't think the other parameters were necessary

predicts NO

@AntonT You can change the end date. Just click it.

@MattP Ok thanks Yev, I finally figured it out. Date has been changed to an arbitrary date in the far future! It does seem odd that I'm able to do this long after the market launches. Apologies to everyone, I'm still learning how prediction markets work.

Will this resolve YES if Ukraine capitulates and NO if Russia capitulates?

@Yev That seems logical to me, as in the case if Russian surrender, Ukraine would reclaim all it's territory.

@AntonT What if Ukraine doesn't capitulate, but the state/military gets destroyed, so that Ukraine does lose territory, but technically does not accept it?

How do you know that something is permanent without waiting forever?

Does this question require the total loss of Donetsk or Lugansk or if Ukraine's territory is even one square centimeter smaller does this market resolve positively?

@BenWest I think the most reasonable way to settle it would be to resolve positively if the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk remain independent of the Ukrainian government. Nobody here is going to measure the border with a ruler.

@AntonT So are you saying that if there was a peace deal where one of those two cities was controlled by Ukraine and the other by Russia, this would resolve NO?

So if there is never a peace treaty, the market never resolves?

predicts NO

@AlexandreK Excellent question. The question should be revised to include some expiration date.

@AlexandreK Unless this becomes worlds first forever war, it will have to end one way or another. I'll add total capitulation to the description.

predicts NO

@AntonT There is a possibility that the conflict could go on for several years without a ceasefire, treaty or capitulation by either side.

@AntonT Forever might be pushing it, but the Korean war is technically still going on, given that although an armistice was signed, no peace treaty ever was, so it's been going on for 77 years. The Hundred Years' War lasted (confusingly enough) 116 years.

So what happens if, say, a cease-fire is signed next year and sort of freezes the conflict without any formal cession of territory, and then nothing happens for years? Does the market remain unresolved? "Yes" is a perfectly acceptable answer to this question as far as I'm concerned, I would just like to fully understand the terms of the market before betting on it.

@AlexandreK I hate setting arbitrary time limits, but you have a point. A temporary ceasefire that lasts over a year without casualties, while Russia still occupies the territories in question will resolve market to YES.

@AntonT So that would make the market resolve to "yes", thanks. Is there anything that would make it resolve to "no", apart from a peace treaty that would involve the restitution of all occupied territory to Ukraine (short of Crimea, I guess)? Or Ukraine somehow pushing Russia out of its territory?

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