Resolution criteria

Each option will resolve as follows based on verifiable events occurring during the 2025 Venezuelan parliamentary election:

• PSUV gets an absolute majority: Resolves "Yes" if the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) secures more than 50% of the 285 seats in the National Assembly. Official results from the National Electoral Council (CNE) will be used for verification.

• Another country claims electoral fraud: Resolves "Yes" if any foreign government officially alleges that the election was fraudulent. Official statements from foreign governments or their representatives will serve as sources.

• The Venezuelan government doesn't release the results by municipality: Resolves "Yes" if the CNE fails to publish election results broken down by municipality within 30 days after the election. The CNE's official publications will be referenced.

• Voter turnout exceeds 50%: Resolves "Yes" if the CNE reports a voter turnout greater than 50% of registered voters. Official turnout figures from the CNE will be used.

• International observers are allowed to monitor the election: Resolves "Yes" if international electoral observation missions are officially accredited by the CNE and permitted to monitor the election process. Official announcements from the CNE or recognized international organizations will be used for verification.

• PSUV loses seats compared to previous election: Resolves "Yes" if the PSUV wins fewer than the 253 seats it held after the 2020 parliamentary election. Seat counts from the CNE for both the 2020 and 2025 elections will be compared.

• Independent media reports on election irregularities: Resolves "Yes" if reputable independent media outlets publish reports alleging irregularities during the election. Reports from recognized independent media organizations will be considered.

• Venezuelan government imposes restrictions on internet access during the election: Resolves "Yes" if there are credible reports of government-imposed internet restrictions on election day. Reports from internet monitoring organizations or reputable media outlets will be used for verification.

Background

The 2025 Venezuelan parliamentary election is scheduled for May 25, 2025, to elect all 285 members of the National Assembly. This election follows the controversial 2024 presidential election, which led to widespread protests and allegations of fraud. The political climate remains tense, with significant divisions among opposition parties regarding participation in the upcoming elections. Notably, opposition leader María Corina Machado has called for a boycott, arguing that participating would legitimize a fraudulent process. (elpais.com)

Additionally, the election is set against the backdrop of an ongoing territorial dispute with Guyana over the Essequibo region. The International Court of Justice has ordered Venezuela to halt plans to hold elections in the disputed area, a directive that the Venezuelan government has rejected. (apnews.com)

Considerations

Given the complex political environment, traders should be aware of potential developments that could impact the election process, such as changes in opposition strategies, international diplomatic interventions, and domestic policy shifts. Monitoring official announcements from the CNE, statements from international bodies, and reports from reputable media outlets will be crucial for assessing the resolution of each market option.