Resolution criteria

Delcy Rodríguez is the acting president of Venezuela after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026. This market resolves YES if Delcy Rodríguez holds the office of President of Venezuela on May 4, 2026, and NO if she does not. Resolution will be determined by official Venezuelan government sources or major international news outlets confirming her status as president on that date.

Background

Maduro was captured during a US operation on January 3, 2026, leaving Rodríguez as acting president of the country but making her future role in the government administration unclear. Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice ordered Rodríguez to assume the presidency. However, she later appeared on state television, claiming that Maduro is Venezuela's only president. The Venezuelan constitution says a new election must be called within a month in the event of the president's absence, but it is unclear whether that rule would apply in such unprecedented circumstances.

Considerations

Several of Maduro's allies have remained in senior positions within Venezuela, including Vladimir Padrino López as defense minister and Diosdado Cabello as interior minister. Rodríguez has previously been seen as more moderate than Maduro and helped spearhead a market-friendly policy overhaul. The political situation remains highly unstable, with President Trump stating the U.S. will "run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition" and indicating the U.S. might send troops to Venezuela.