Absurd story out of The Atlantic today as one of their editors-in-chief is added to a Signal chat discussing military strikes in Yemen with key Trump administration figures.
As far as I can tell, the actions here are potentially illegal and definitely a huge disaster for at least 3 reasons:
Adding the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic to a discussion of highly sensitive military objectives
Having the chat over Signal, which is not approved by the government for sharing classified information
Having on disappearing messages, which likely violates federal records acts.
This market resolves YES if any of the following people are no longer in the Trump administration by the end of April for any reason related to this Signal thread and leak:
Michael Waltz (National Security Adviser)
JD Vance (Vice President)
Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)
Susie Wiles (White House Chief of Staff)
Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)
Marco Antonio Rubio (Secretary of State)
Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary)
John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)
Steve Witkoff (Middle East and Ukraine Negotiator)
Brian McCormack (Representative for National Security Council)
Alex Wong (Deputy to National Security Adviser)
Mike Needham (Counselor of State Department)
Dan Caldwell (Representative for Defense)
Dan Katz (Treasury Chief of Staff)
Joe Kent (Director of National Counterterrorism)
Andy Baker (Representative for Vice President)
Stephen Miller (Homeland Security Advisor)
I'll be fairly loose about the reason being related to the leaked thread. If they're fired and it's unknown why but we have a decent suspicion, that counts. Same for people leaving/resigning and not explicitly being "fired".
Update 4/19:
Politico is reporting that Caldwell has been fired. I want to be as clear as possible with this since I anticipate things could get somewhat subjective, so I’ll say now:
As of this moment, I don’t see any reporting directly tying it to the signal thread - especially since Caldwell was fired among other colleagues who weren’t involved.
But, if such reporting does emerge, it doesn’t have to be the only or even dominant reason he was fired. I put “fairly loose” in the description, and I intend to stick to that.
Update 4/21:
If Hegseth is out before the end of April this is almost certainly a YES. Even if other factors contributed to the departure the signal chat will certainly have been a part of it.
1,000People are also trading
Dan Caldwell is in your list and fired (presumably) for leaking the story/stories about Signalgate 1.0 and possibly 2.0
@SusanneinFrance conversely he denies he leaked anything, much less signalgate, and claims while he was never told why he was fired, it must have been due to a difference of opinion regarding policy
@SusanneinFrance I mentioned this in a comment below, but I haven't seen anything about signalgate 1.0 leaks and Caldwell? The article you linked reference:
last week that the investigation centered around a series of leaks, including the deployments of carriers to the Red Sea, Elon Musk’s visit to the Pentagon for a security briefing and the pause of U.S. intelligence to Ukraine
None of this is signalgate? The article goes on to say:
Caldwell said he thought when officials came to escort him out of the Pentagon on April 15 was that he was being asked to testify against Hegseth in an inspector general investigation over the use of the Signal messaging app by senior administration officials to discuss a looming airstrike in Yemen.
To me, this is saying that the firing is not connected to signalgate? He thought he was being asked to testify about it, but instead he's being fired for separate, unrelated leaks that Hegseth is claiming he is responsible for.
I'm open to seeing articles that connect Caldwell's firing with signalgate 1.0, I just haven't seen it yet.
There seems to be a chance Hegseth is on the way out due to the Signal chat. We might be close to resolving as a YES https://www.npr.org/2025/04/21/nx-s1-5371312/trump-white-house-pete-hegseth-defense-department
@TimMerritt if Hegseth resigns/is out before the end of April this is almost certainly a YES. There’s no way the signal chat wouldn’t have contributed to it.
https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1913595580577706302?s=46
Politico is reporting that Caldwell has been fired. I want to be as clear as possible with this since I anticipate things could get somewhat subjective, so I’ll say now:
As of this moment, I don’t see any reporting directly tying it to the signal thread - especially since Caldwell was fired among other colleagues who weren’t involved.
But, if such reporting does emerge, it doesn’t have to be the only or even dominant reason he was fired. I put “fairly loose” in the description, and I intend to stick to that.
@Sketchy Developing story about Hegseth: https://www.npr.org/2025/04/21/nx-s1-5371312/trump-white-house-pete-hegseth-defense-department
I think this is resolved as a YES :) https://www.reuters.com/world/us/top-hegseth-advisor-dan-caldwell-put-leave-pentagon-leak-probe-2025-04-15/
@TimMerritt "Caldwell was placed on administrative leave" not "fired". I'm surprised these people are being protected as much as they are. Waltz hasn't been punished and even Trump seems to know he's a bit of a simpleton.
@TimMerritt edit: disregard, I thought this was a comment on my market with different resolution criteria XD
@TimMerritt he hasn’t been fired yet. I also am not convinced this is because of the signal leak so reserve the right to not count it if it’s clearly for something else.
But an interesting update!
@Sketchy let's see what develops--they might say that it was in part due to the Signal leak i the coming days ;)
@FergusArgyll Meanwhile Trump's last "Truth" was
@FergusArgyll wrong link? this is not a post on Truth Social and also doesn't quote one (aside from the fact this is a parody article)