Will the US win the war against the Houthis in a year? (Read description)

1kṀ6271

Apr 10

33%

chance

ALL

Important: Since the war aim of the actions against the Houthis are restoring free passage of commercial ships the win condition for the US is here that Suez canal traffic returns to levels of pre-houthi threats.

Market context

Geopolitics

Wars

Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

Drone Wars

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https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-truce-reached-with-houthis-after-they-promise-to-stop-targeting-ships-9bb99d64

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1912275579874775281

bought Ṁ250 YES

https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/houthi-united-states-strikes-gaza-blockade-israel-shipping

bought Ṁ200 YES

Betting that even if the conflict is ongoing, increased trade between the Mediterranean and China causes this to resolve Yes anyway.

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