Absurd story out of The Atlantic today as one of their editors-in-chief is added to a Signal chat discussing military strikes in Yemen with key Trump administration figures.

As far as I can tell, the actions here are potentially illegal and definitely a huge disaster for at least 3 reasons:

1. Adding the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic to a discussion of highly sensitive military objectives

2. Having the chat over Signal, which is not approved by the government for sharing classified information

3. Having on disappearing messages, which likely violates federal records acts.

This market resolves YES if any of the following people are no longer in the Trump administration by the end of April for any reason related to this Signal thread and leak:

• Michael Waltz (National Security Adviser)

• JD Vance (Vice President)

• Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

• Susie Wiles (White House Chief of Staff)

• Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

• Marco Antonio Rubio (Secretary of State)

• Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary)

• John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

• Steve Witkoff (Middle East and Ukraine Negotiator)

• Brian McCormack (Representative for National Security Council)

• Alex Wong (Deputy to National Security Adviser)

• Mike Needham (Counselor of State Department)

• Dan Caldwell (Representative for Defense)

• Dan Katz (Treasury Chief of Staff)

• Joe Kent (Director of National Counterterrorism)

• Andy Baker (Representative for Vice President)

• Stephen Miller (Homeland Security Advisor)

I'll be fairly loose about the reason being related to the leaked thread. If they're fired and it's unknown why but we have a decent suspicion, that counts. Same for people leaving/resigning and not explicitly being "fired".

Update 4/19:

Politico is reporting that Caldwell has been fired. I want to be as clear as possible with this since I anticipate things could get somewhat subjective, so I’ll say now:

• As of this moment, I don’t see any reporting directly tying it to the signal thread - especially since Caldwell was fired among other colleagues who weren’t involved.

• But, if such reporting does emerge, it doesn’t have to be the only or even dominant reason he was fired. I put “fairly loose” in the description, and I intend to stick to that.

Update 4/21:

• If Hegseth is out before the end of April this is almost certainly a YES. Even if other factors contributed to the departure the signal chat will certainly have been a part of it.

• Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding Dan Caldwell's firing, the creator currently intends to resolve NO, based on analysis of reporting from Politico, AP, and NYTimes which does not, in the creator's view, sufficiently link the firing to the Signal thread leak under the "fairly loose" standard.

The creator specifies the market would resolve YES if new reporting emerges before the closing date confirming any of the following:

• The Pentagon/DoD leak investigation, which reportedly led to Caldwell's dismissal, is related to the Signal scandal.

• Caldwell's firing was related to his role in the Signal scandal.

• The general firings (including Caldwell's) occurred due to pressure resulting from the Signal scandal.

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding Dan Caldwell's dismissal, where it was reported he was told off the record it was due to leaking classified information, the creator clarifies the following:

  • For this dismissal to trigger a YES resolution, the specific leaking Caldwell was allegedly fired for must be related to the Signal chat leak.

  • Based on current reporting (e.g., from Politico regarding leaks about the Panama Canal, Red Sea carrier, Elon Musk visit, Ukraine intelligence), the creator does not currently see evidence that the leaks leading to Caldwell's dismissal were related to the Signal chat incident.

  • The market would resolve YES if reporting emerges confirming the leaking Caldwell was allegedly dismissed for was the Signal chat or related to it.