Background

The Houthis, a Yemen-based militant group, had significantly increased their military activities throughout 2024, particularly targeting vessels in the Red Sea and launching attacks against Israel. But recently, post the gaza ceasefire they seemed to have stopped their attacks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if at least one of the following occurs between February 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025:

• The Houthis launch consistent attacks against Israeli or other western targets

• The Houthis increase the frequency of attacks by at least 50% compared to December 2024

The market will resolve NO if none of these criteria are met during the specified timeframe.

Considerations

• The Houthis have shown resilience against international military pressure and their capabilities remain largely intact

• Their actions are influenced by regional developments, particularly the situation in Gaza

• The group has strategic interests in maintaining pressure on shipping lanes, including potential revenue from vessels crossing the Bab al-Mandab Strait

• Changes in international response strategies or regional conflicts could significantly impact Houthi decision-making