I've been speaking to some journalists, and it seems very important that we build a page that shows case studies of cherry picked events to build a track record of our site predicting events better than mainstream news/traditional forecasts (eg polls). We want to start proving prediction market accuracy through evidence (before we relied a lot on the theoretical backing of the mechanisms in our branding).

Eg. something became true and we predicted a higher probability than most news.

Even if they don't seem that statistically significant, still post them. The calibration and stats already show that overall we are accurate, but journalists and more casual viewers just want specific examples they can point to.

I will vary bounty awards based on how strong I feel the evidence is and how likely I am to include it in our track record page.

Feel free to also link to prediction market wins outside of Manifold Markets. Although I will prioritise wins of particular markets on our site.

Some examples I am already aware of vaguely, but may still give bounties if you do a good job at describing them in more detail:

-Predicting FTX implosion and SBF arrest related things

-Predicting Ukraine invasion related things

-2022 midterms