Will 85% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 18th October?
28
256
490
resolved Oct 18
Resolved
NO

On 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.

The changes went into force and some of the subreddits (including subreddits with millions of subscribers) have remained dark to express their opposition.

We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% and 80% to come back up - we originally thought that there would be a mass return of the markets in a few days but they originally took a lot longer than expected!

Now we're looking at how long it will take for 85% of the subreddits to come back.

/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida

/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday

/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits

/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33

/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833

/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-5462c36f8fe1

/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits

/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-ac21eed14be6

/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-bbc0ce492ec7

How much longer will it take to hit 85%?

This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "1765/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 20%. If this figure ticks below 15%, the market resolves to YES.

The deadline is Wednesday 18th October at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).

Resolution notes:

  • If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ258
2Ṁ99
3Ṁ66
4Ṁ65
5Ṁ47
Sort by:
predicted NO

This only went from 80% to 81.6% during the two months that this market was alive so it resolves to NO.

This was fun while it lasted but the number is barely moving and I think the interest in this subject has died down, so I'm going to stop making markets on this subject for now.

Who knows, maybe there'll be another interesting development in the coming months and we can have more Reddit-watching fun!

bought Ṁ40 of NO

1726/8829 subreddits are currently dark.

402 subreddits to go, 51 days left.

7.9 per day needed. It's drifting away rather than seeming closer...

predicted NO

1762/8829 subreddits are currently dark

438 subreddits to go, with 61 days until the deadline.

That's 7.2 per day