As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content.
Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past 8 days, either because they wanted to bring their subreddit back or becuase Reddit's admins threatened to kick out their moderators if they didn't come back online.
Inspired by these markets from @MP:
/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida
/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday
Since MP hasn't made a followup market, here it is!
As before, this market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "3415/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 38.7%. If this figure ticks below 25%, the market resolves to YES.
The deadline is Thursday at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).
The deadline is set so that I'll be awake, but also becuase that seems pretty close to the time which we would expect to hit 25% if we follow the same trajectory as the past few days!
Resolution notes:
If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
1,000
3.00With 15 hours to go, we're now sitting at 2763/8829 subreddits still dark.
Reddit are getting more aggressive with their attempts to force subreddits to go public, and that has increased the pace to around 15-20 subreddits per hour, but that pace still wouldn't be enough to hit the 22:00 deadline for this market.
I've created another market with a deadline 24 hours later, which looks a bit more realistic:
@SimonGrayson -11 / hour in past 4 hours. Decelerating? Wonder where it will go from now. I'd let it sit at 50% for a while. 54-hour average predicts 25.6342% on Friday. 38-hour predicts 24.443429%.
@XComhghall Assuming Reddit are using primarily USA based staff then it’s outside working hours and has been for a while, be interesting to see if it speeds up again in a couple of hours as the USA comes online.
True.
6/21 08:30 3138 / 8829 35.54% -12.6 / hour
6/22 07:15 2761 / 8829 31.27% -11 / hour
I guess these two are quite similar. And 23-hour average predicts 2118.857142857142 / 8829, 23.998835%.
With 50 hours to go...
https://reddark.untone.uk/ currently shows 3310/8829 subreddits are currently dark.
This would need to fall by 1,103 in 50 hours, so 22 per hour.
It's been falling pretty slowly since this market was created - it's averaged just 9 per hour.
@SimonGrayson I suppose it tracks that if subreddits have been tenacious enough to stay closed this long, there hasn’t been anything to change their minds since. Short of Reddit finding a way to force subs online more rapidly I think this is a shoo-in for NO.
@SimonGrayson Update with 25 hours to go:
2921/8829 subreddits are currently dark.
This needs to fall by another 714 - that's 28.6 per hour.
It's been falling a bit quicker than yesterday but not quickly enough to reach 25% by market close - over the past 25 hours it has averaged 15.6 per hour. So it would need to get quite a lot quicker still to hit the target!
Link, BST (UTC+1)
* Omitted. The next per hour change is from the count before *.
6/20 00:50 3460 / 8829 39.19%
6/20 02:45 3440 / 8829 38.96% -10.4347826 / hour
6/20 03:05 3435 / 8829 38.91% *
6/20 03:25 3432 / 8829 38.87% *
6/20 09:50 3412 / 8829 38.65% -3.952941 / hour
6/20 16:45 3360 / 8829 38.06% -7.518 / hour
6/20 19:20 3315 / 8829 37.55% -17.4193548387 / hour
6/20 21:10 3289 / 8829 37.25% -14.181818 / hour
6/21 01:50 3222 / 8829 36.49% -14.3571428571428 / hour
6/21 08:30 3138 / 8829 35.54% -12.6 / hour
6/21 20:30 2939 / 8829 33.29% -16.58333 / hour
6/22 00:30 2859 / 8829 32.38% -20 / hour
6/22 03:15 2805 / 8829 31.77% -19.6363636363636 / hour
6/22 07:15 2761 / 8829 31.27% -11 / hour
6/22 12:15 2723 / 8829 30.84% -7.6 / hour
6/22 17:15 2684 / 8829 30.4% -7.8 / hour
6/22 21:00 2638 / 8829 29.88% -12.2666 / hour
6/22 22:00 2644 / 8829 29.95% +6 / hour
-12 / hour on average. 2625.94132 (29.742228%) expected on Thursday.
@XComhghall Hmm... I based my idea that this closing date would seem a bit 50/50 on the fact that we've been seeing an average drop of about 15-20 per hour for the last couple of days. That's very drastically slowed down in the past 12 hours!
It looks like the really big driver might be some subs going temporarily dark again, like the main UK sub which have said they'll go dark every Tuesday: