As a reaction to recent chagnes made by Reddit, a large number of subreddits "went dark" by either going entirely private or by going read-only and stopping people from posting new content.
Almost 9,000 subreddits went dark on 12th June and we've slowly been seeing some of them return over the past two weeks, either because they wanted to bring their subreddit back or becuase Reddit's admins threatened to kick out their moderators if they didn't come back online.
This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2562/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 31.3%. If this figure ticks below 25%, the market resolves to YES.
The deadline is Wednesday at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).
Previous markets tracking the progress:
/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida
/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33
(With thanks to @MP who came up with the idea and created the first two markets here)
Resolution notes:
If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
1,000
3.00One reason might have been the recognition of the new protest method oliver?
Wait nvm. Oliver and archived are counted as public.
-2.88 / hour in last 23 hours. 2346.48 (26.576962%) expected on Wednesday.
Link, BST (UTC+1)
6/20 00:50 3460 / 8829 39.19%
6/20 02:45 3440 / 8829 38.96% -10.4347826 / hour
6/20 09:50 3412 / 8829 38.65% -3.952941 / hour
6/20 16:45 3360 / 8829 38.06% -7.518 / hour
6/20 19:20 3315 / 8829 37.55% -17.4193548387 / hour
6/20 21:10 3289 / 8829 37.25% -14.181818 / hour
6/21 01:50 3222 / 8829 36.49% -14.3571428571428 / hour
6/21 08:30 3138 / 8829 35.54% -12.6 / hour
6/21 20:30 2939 / 8829 33.29% -16.58333 / hour
6/22 00:30 2859 / 8829 32.38% -20 / hour
6/22 03:15 2805 / 8829 31.77% -19.6363636363636 / hour
6/22 07:15 2761 / 8829 31.27% -11 / hour
6/22 12:15 2723 / 8829 30.84% -7.6 / hour
6/22 17:15 2684 / 8829 30.4% -7.8 / hour
6/22 21:00 2638 / 8829 29.88% -12.2666 / hour
6/22 22:00 2644 / 8829 29.95% +6 / hour
6/23 06:50 2590 / 8829 29.34% -6.1132 / hour
6/23 10:15 2582 / 8829 29.24% -2.3414634146 / hour
6/23 15:40 2578 / 8829 29.2% -0.7384615384615 / hour
6/23 19:50 2562 / 8829 29.02% -3.84 / hour
6/23 22:00 2559 / 8829 28.98% -1.38461538461538 / hour
6/24 04:45 2533 / 8829 28.69% -3.851851 / hour
6/24 10:45 2525 / 8829 28.6% -1.333 / hour
6/25 03:35 2490 / 8829 28.2% -2.0792 / hour
6/25 11:50 2484 / 8829 28.13% -0.727272 / hour
6/26 08:05 2434 / 8829 27.57% -2.4691358 / hour
6/26 23:00 2402 / 8829 27.21% -2.14525 / hour
6/27 21:10 2418 / 8829 27.39% +0.7218 / hour
6/28 09:40 2366 / 8829 26.8% -4.16 / hour
6/28 12:10 2353 / 8829 26.65% -5.2 / hour
6/28 20:05 2352 / 8829 26.6% -0.1263 / hour
At the time of market creation there are 2,652 subreddits still dark. This needs to drop to 2,207 for the market to resolve to YES - so 355 to go.
Over the past 24 hours the pace at which subs are reopening has absolutely fallen through the floor. We were seeing figures of around 10-20 per hour earlier in the week but the average over the past 24 hours has been just 4 per hour.
So I've set the closing time for this market five days away - at this point the question is how much more proactive Reddit are going to be in terms of forcing subreddits to open up against the moderators' will!