Will 80% of the "gone dark" subreddits return by Wednesday 23rd August?
53
518
1K
resolved Aug 18
Resolved
YES

On 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.

The changes went into force and some of the subreddits (including subreddits with millions of subscribers) have remained dark to express their opposition.

We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up - we originally thought that this might happen within a few days but the rate of reopening slowed down futher and further and it was eventually hit on 3rd July.

Now we're looking at how long it will take for 80% of the subreddits to come back.

/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida

/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday

/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits

/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33

/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833

/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-5462c36f8fe1

/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits

/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-ac21eed14be6

How much longer will it take to hit 80%?

This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "1817/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 20.6%. If this figure ticks below 20%, the market resolves to YES.

The deadline is Wednesday 23rd August July at 22:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).

Resolution notes:

  • If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.

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predicted YES

1765/8829 subreddits are currently dark.

We've officially hit it! Will another two months be enough to hit 85%?

bought Ṁ380 of YES

gg

predicted YES

79.986%

Need 2 more

bought Ṁ100 of YES

79.964%

Need 4 more (0.667 Per Day)

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind Almost there...

predicted YES

79.94%

Need 6 more (0.979 Per Day)

bought Ṁ278 of YES

79.92%

Need 8 more (1.129 Per Day)

bought Ṁ100 of YES

It's so close (1174 now, so only 9 subreddits away) and it went down by >10 in the last day, so it can even resolve YES in the next 24 hours

bought Ṁ50 of YES

79.827%

Need 16 more (2.157 per day)

predicted YES

It's 1765/8829 for anyone following along

predicted NO

Edit: misunderstood you, you're just stating what the 80% threshold is.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington yep! sorry i was unclear

bought Ṁ25 of YES

big order up for 1 hour! get your no shares now!!

79.73%

25 needed for 80% (2.791 Per day)

sold Ṁ85 of YES
predicted YES

79.68%

29 needed for 80% (3.13 Per day)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

1799/8829 Subreddits are currently dark.

That means there are 34 to go - 3.2 per day until this market closes!