Last month, on 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.
The changes went into force and some of the subreddits (including subreddits with millions of subscribers) have remained dark to express their opposition.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up - we originally thought that this might happen within a few days but the rate of reopening slowed down futher and further and it was eventually hit on 3rd July.
/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida
/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-5462c36f8fe1
/SimonGrayson/will-80-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
How much longer will it take to hit 80%?
This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2006/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 22.7%. If this figure ticks below 20%, the market resolves to YES.
The deadline is Wednesday 9th August July at 21:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).
Resolution notes:
If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ444 | |
| 2 | Ṁ419 | |
| 3 | Ṁ380 | |
| 4 | Ṁ127 | |
| 5 | Ṁ62 |
People are also trading
Looks like this is resolving to NO unless something very surprising happens in the next three hours...
Will another two weeks be enough?
The site is currently showing 1837/8829 subreddits are currently dark.
So that's 72 to go in 5 days or roughly 14.5 per day.
Looks like the Reddark site is up and running again!
The site is still considered the source of truth for this market, so if it’s updating over the next few days then the resolution to this market will be based on that site even if there are any questions around its methodology!
78.47% Have Returned So Far
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@SirCryptomind Yeah, this is going to resolve to N/A if nothing changes, but I think we might as well give it a few days to see if the guys behind the Reddark site find a new way to update their site.
@SimonGrayson Still at 1951 , the API is done, I do not believe they can track without paying for an API being used.
Something slightly weird seems to be going on with https://reddark.untone.uk/
The site has now been showing the figure of gone dark subreddits as 1951/8829 for the past two days without this changing at all. Usually the figure moves up and down a bit as a few subreddits open and close even if the figure is staying roughly stable over a few days.
I think that might mean that the Reddark site is no longer updating properly (maybe whatever tool they were using to check the subreddits has been blocked?) and that there's a chance we won't actually know how many subreddits are still dark by the time this market closes.
If the site is down or broken and it's not possible to know how many subreddits are dark, this market will resolve N/A.
@SimonGraysonYea it has got to be broken. It is stuck there, and I noticed some subreddits on there 2 days ago that said they werent blacked out but they were since reddit started taking over admin control. I think reddit broke the API, ya know the one they are selling.
How else do these sites scrape for data????
I feel this will happen quicker with other subreddits if Reddit continues taking control of others.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?