Nigel Farage has said that he is making an announcement at 4:00:
There is speculation that he will be doing a u-turn on his previous declaration that he will not be running as a candidate in this general election. There is also speculation that he will be defecting from Reform UK to the Conservative Party in an attempt to take over as Tory leader after the next election.
What will he be announcing? Predict now!
Market notes:
I think that the seven options I've picked are mostly mutually exclusive. But if some combination of them is true, I will resolve the market equally to those options - 50/50 if there are two, 33/33/33 if there are three, etc.
If the announcement comes today but it comes later than 4:00, that will still count for this market. If the announcement does not come today, I will resolve to the "none of the above" option
I hope that the outcome will be very clear, but be warned that there may be a subjective element to this market. I will not bet on this market myself!
This market will resolve based on Nigel Farage's announcement rather than on whether his announcement turns out to be true. So if he announces that he is running as a Tory candidate and Rishi Sunak comes out to deny this, the market will still resolve to the Tory candidate option!
1,000
3.00Ooft, this should be well enough to propel @Noit into 2nd place in the UK Politics leaderboard!
(Not sure what the deal is with the double accounts... I guess you were already second if you add them together. But now it's official.)
It'll take a pretty outstanding performance by the Conservatives in the General Election for me to reclaim my spot I reckon. But Farage taking over leadership of the party is probably in turn bad for Conservative GE chances... Not looking good for Fion's profits.
@Fion I've got an old iOS-locked account I'm shutting down.
I'd just like to say thank you to my number one mana source, Our Nigel, for his commitment to wrecking the Tories and doing predictably destructive things to our national discourse.
What a wild ride! The early predictions were correct to bet a Farage candidacy up to 93%, but as he started his speech it went all the way down to 8% before shooting right back up.
Farage said during the speech that the ambition is to get more than 4,000,000 votes. Will they manage this? And how will Farage do in Clacton?
/Tetraspace/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-266436997eba
/SimonGrayson/general-election-2024-where-will-ni
/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot
There are predictions that this announcement will wipe out the Conservatives. How will they do?
/SimonGrayson/will-the-conservative-party-win-few
/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-how-many-s-qzm55nj4xt
@SimonGrayson 93% feels right to me given his escalatingly regretful comments over choosing not to stand as an MP culminating on Saturday[1], and both sides of any pact between Reform and Tories ruling it out.
[1] "At an event in Nottinghamshire on Saturday, Mr Farage says he has had "deep regrets" about choosing not to stand. He told Nottinghamshire Live that “any man that rules out anything for the future is an idiot."" - https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/nigel-farage-to-make-emergency-general-election-announcement/
(edited to add citation)
@SimonGrayson It was always on the cards once Trump's deliberation was concluded so swiftly.
Never let it be said that our Nige doesn't have a nose for which way the wind is blowing & self-preservation