UK General Election: Which party will win in Clacton?
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2025
Farage is threatening to stand in Clacton which probably makes this one a bit more interesting. He’s a seven time loser but even if he doesn’t win he’ll split the Conservative vote. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12960237/Nigel-Farages-Reform-UK-draws-hit-list-ten-Conservative-MPs-defect-General-Election.html
Nigel Farage to run as Reform UK candidate in Clacton https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3gg66pm8ylo Are his odds actually that good though?
12%
Labour
13%
Conservatives
0.1%
Liberal Democrat
75%
Reform UK
0.2%
Other

Thanks to @Fion for creating many other markets in this series.

This refers to the next general election to take place electing representatives to the UK parliament.

Please submit answers in the form of a political party, not an individual. If you wish to submit an individual who will run as an independent, please submit your answer in the form: "Independent: [person's name]". If anybody submits "Independent" as an answer, it will not resolve YES, even if an independent wins.

"Labour" and "Labour and Co-operative" will be treated interchangeably.

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sold Ṁ129 Reform UK YES

Pretty good chance Farage's resurfaced comments on Ukraine in particular and general Russia ties cut through before the election, in my opinion.

bought Ṁ50 Reform UK YES

New Survation poll of Clacton shows 42% Reform to 27% Tory. Looking more and more like a sure thing.

https://x.com/Survation/status/1803438162468807155?t=XwpP_f2wXSNxXeifozDqUA&s=19

Farage is threatening to stand in Clacton which probably makes this one a bit more interesting. He’s a seven time loser but even if he doesn’t win he’ll split the Conservative vote. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12960237/Nigel-Farages-Reform-UK-draws-hit-list-ten-Conservative-MPs-defect-General-Election.html