Nigel Farage has said that he is making an announcement at 4:00:

There is speculation that he will be doing a u-turn on his previous declaration that he will not be running as a candidate in this general election. There is also speculation that he will be defecting from Reform UK to the Conservative Party in an attempt to take over as Tory leader after the next election.

What will he be announcing? Predict now!

Market notes:

• I think that the seven options I've picked are mostly mutually exclusive. But if some combination of them is true, I will resolve the market equally to those options - 50/50 if there are two, 33/33/33 if there are three, etc.

• If the announcement comes today but it comes later than 4:00, that will still count for this market. If the announcement does not come today, I will resolve to the "none of the above" option

• I hope that the outcome will be very clear, but be warned that there may be a subjective element to this market. I will not bet on this market myself!

• This market will resolve based on Nigel Farage's announcement rather than on whether his announcement turns out to be true. So if he announces that he is running as a Tory candidate and Rishi Sunak comes out to deny this, the market will still resolve to the Tory candidate option!