The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill is due to receive its second reading on Tuesday.
Rishi Sunak has committed to going ahead with this despite a lot of opposition from his own party. There is a market here on whether the vote will take place on Tuesday - /SimonGrayson/will-there-be-a-commons-vote-on-the
How many Tory MPs will vote against the bill on the second reading vote?
If you want an example of how the votes on the second and third readings of a bill work, take a look at the votes on the Marriage Act where MPs had a chance to vote for/against the second reading and the on the final version of the bill at third reading after the committee stage. Note that the government will be pleading with rebels to vote for the bill at this stage and that some of them will wait to see if it reaches the third reading before they have to register their opposition!
Notes:
Abstentions do not count for this market - not even very pointed abstentions which are accompanied by criticism of the bill!
If the vote is delayed past Tuesday or even past Christmas, this market will resolve to the number of votes against the bill whenever it comes up for its second reading. If there is no second reading on the bill by the time of the next General Election or the government pulls the legislation and makes it clear that they will not be bringing it back to the House before the next election, this market will resolve to N/A
In the very unlikely event that the bill passes its second reading without the need for a vote (ie. the House passes it unanimously) that will count as zero votes against and the markets will resolve to NO.
Tellers will not count towards the numbers in this market
Related markets:
/SimonGrayson/will-the-uk-government-pass-legisla
/SimonGrayson/will-the-uk-government-cancel-the-c
/Noit/will-the-house-of-commons-pass-the
/SimonGrayson/will-there-be-a-commons-vote-on-the
/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ515 | |
| 2 | Ṁ187 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 |
The Guardian and the BBC are confirming that I’m not misreading that page on the Parliament’s website - zero Tories voted against the bill’s second reading so all markets resolve to NO.
That’s a massive shock since the 1+ market was trading at 95% earlier today!
Will we be able to predict the third reading vote (the final Commons vote before the bill is sent to the Lords) any better?
Completely against our expectations, there appear to have been ZERO Tory votes against:
https://votes.parliament.uk/votes/commons/division/1691#noes
That’s so far away from our expectations that I want to check the media reporting on the vote to make sure I’m not mistaken here - I’m going to be offline for a couple of hours but I’ll confirm 100% and resolve later this evening.
@SimonGrayson I hope Mark Francois chokes on his star chamber. All this palaver leading to a few dozen abstentions. If Sunak was a competent leader he’d threaten to expel him if he ever makes a peep again.
Various journalists are reporting that the extremists on the Tory right will be abstaining rather than voting against the second reading, claiming that they’ll vote against on the third reading if they don’t get the amendments they want.
The number of votes against might be quite a bit lower than the number of rebels!
The vote is planned for 7:00 this evening.
It's clear that there's still a hell of a lot of opposition to the bill, and the Guardian's rolling coverage of the day's political news is suggesting that there's still quite a lot of uncertainty about who'll be rebelling tonight and who will be keeping their powder dry until the amendment stage!
https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/how-many-conservative-mps-will-vote-8fd8b9f435f2
The Guardian is reporting a desperate whipping operation...
One person close to the talks described the government’s whipping operation as “belated, panicked and intense”.
@SimonGrayson I’m really struggling to parse this all. Neither of the wings of the party are happy but neither seem to be directly planning to vote it down. But the whips are shitting bricks. The only thing I can think of is that so many individuals are thinking of rebelling that the factions don’t really mean anything. Which makes it very difficult to predict.