The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill passed its second reading on 12th December. Despite the threat of major rebellions, the second reading passed comfortably. You can see how many no votes the market was expecting here:
/SimonGrayson/how-many-conservative-mps-will-vote-8fd8b9f435f2
The bill now goes forward for the committee stage and possible amendments before the main Commons vote to pass the bill to the Lords.
How many Tory MPs will vote against the bill in this main vote?
The vote is scheduled to take place on Wednesday 17th January.
If you want an example of how the votes on the second and third readings of a bill work, take a look at the votes on the Marriage Act where MPs had a chance to vote for/against the second reading and the on the final version of the bill at third reading after the committee stage.
Notes:
Amendments are not relevant to this market. If the bill is heavily amended, the market will still relate to the final votes to pass the amended bill.
Abstentions do not count for this market - not even very pointed abstentions which are accompanied by criticism of the bill!
If there is no third reading vote on the bill by the time of the next General Election or the government pulls the legislation and makes it clear that they will not be bringing it back to the House before the next election, this market will resolve to N/A
In the very unlikely event that the bill passes without the need for a vote (ie. the House passes it unanimously) that will count as zero votes against and the markets will resolve to NO.
Tellers will not count towards the numbers in this market
Related markets:
/SimonGrayson/will-the-uk-government-pass-legisla
/SimonGrayson/will-the-uk-government-cancel-the-c
/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ224 | |
| 2 | Ṁ137 | |
| 3 | Ṁ28 | |
| 4 | Ṁ22 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
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11 Tory MPs voted against the bill in the final reckoning.
I'm disappointed to see that it's only the extremist MPs complaining that the legislation doesn't go far enough. I was hoping that there still might be some moderate MPs left who would vote against this awful legislation on principle!
Attention now moves to the Lords. And political attention also moves to the upcoming by-elections - there are set to be two by-elections on 15th February:
/Noit/which-party-will-win-the-kingswood
More MPs are threatening to vote for the rebel amendments:
Just a reminder that if they vote for those amendments but then vote for the bill (whether it's been amended or not), they don't count towards the numbers for this market!
@JoshuaWilkes If zero Tory MPs vote against, these options all resolve to NO. This actually what happened in the first reading and it was a bit of a shock after days of speculation that there’d be 20ish rebels:
/SimonGrayson/how-many-conservative-mps-will-vote-8fd8b9f435f2