Will the House of Commons pass the Rwanda bill on Tuesday?
resolved Dec 12

There has been a lot of drama around this legislation. Will it survive contact with the House of Commons?

Resolves YES if a majority of voting MPs vote Yes on the bill when it is put before them on Tuesday, or if it is passed “on the nod” without a division.

Resolves NO if the majority of voting MPs vote No.

Note “voting MPs”, if a majority abstain then this resolves on how the majority of votes went.

This does not consider any amendments, it is dependent on the bill passing in any form, amended or not.

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Passed 313 to 269, will resolve YES momentarily.

Sounds like the right wing aren’t going to block it, so odds of it passing are pretty good IMO and everything should calm down again for a little while.

predicted NO

Can’t believe how much of a coin toss this market is. Nobody has bought YES at over 50%.

Today’s updates may shift it, there’s two big meetings in Westminster, one of over 100 to the right of the Tory party and another with a similar number of One Nation Tories. Seems unlikely that we will be in such suspense by the end of the day.

If the government withdraws the bill before Tuesday (or there’s no vote on Tuesday for some other reason) does this resolve to NO or N/A?

@SimonGrayson N/A, although if there’s a suggestion that it’s only pushed back a few days I’d probably extend closure.

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