Will the UK government pass legislation defining Rwanda as a “safe country” before the next General Election?
resolved May 9

The UK government has repeatedly stated that one of their top priorities (or even their top priority) is to “Stop The Boats” - to discourage refugees and asylum seekers from crossing the Channel in small boats and claiming asylum once they reach British soil.

They claim that the best way to do this is to forcibly remove asylum seekers to Rwanda, where their asylum claims can be judged under Rwandan law and they can be settled as refugees in Rwanda is they are successful.

On 15th November, the UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the plan was unlawful, finding as a matter of fact that refugees sent to Rwanda were at serious risk of being returned to the countries from which they were escaping persecution.

On 16th November, Rishi Sunak announced that he would pass “emergency legislation” defining Rwanda to be a safe place for Refugees. He has since spoken about cancelling Parliament’s Christmas recess so that they can vote on the legislation!

To become law, the legislation will have to clear three hurdles:

  • Pass the House of Commons (presumably in a heavily whipped vote)

  • Pass the House of Lords (not subject to the Salisbury Convention since this was not a manifesto pledge)

  • Receive Royal Assent (this should be a formality)

Will it pass all three hurdles before Parliament is dissolved for the next General Election?

Note - If the legislation is modified or amended so heavily that it can not be said to be declaring Rwanda as a safe country or a safe place for refugees (eg. If it says that there should be an assumption that it is but that the courts have the power to judge that as a matter of fact), this will resolve to NO.

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It has received royal assent. This can resolve YES now.

@Calvin6b82 Thank you - I'm not sure how this one slipped through the cracks!

The The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill meets the criteria for this market - once it receives Royal Assent, I will resolve to YES.

predicted NO

I’ve set up a market for the Commons vote on Tuesday as that’s likely to be spicy.

predicted NO

Update - the draft legislation has been published and section 2 defines Rwanda as a safe place for asylum seekers:


If the legislation passes like this, the market will resolve to YES.

If the legislation fails to pass before the next election or it passes with amendments which change section 2 so that it no longer meets this definition, the market will resolve to NO.

predicted NO

It looks like the Tories are starting to tear themselves apart over the Rwanda legislation:


Meanwhile, Braverman is back and demanding that Sunak cancel the Christmas recess to focus on the "emergency legislation" that he's promised:


Will he go ahead with having Parliament sit over Christmas?

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