The UK government has repeatedly stated that one of their top priorities (or even their top priority) is to “Stop The Boats” - to discourage refugees and asylum seekers from crossing the Channel in small boats and claiming asylum once they reach British soil.

They claim that the best way to do this is to forcibly remove asylum seekers to Rwanda, where their asylum claims can be judged under Rwandan law and they can be settled as refugees in Rwanda is they are successful.

On 15th November, the UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the plan was unlawful, finding as a matter of fact that refugees sent to Rwanda were at serious risk of being returned to the countries from which they were escaping persecution.

On 16th November, Rishi Sunak announced that he would pass “emergency legislation” defining Rwanda to be a safe place for Refugees. He has since spoken about cancelling Parliament’s Christmas recess so that they can vote on the legislation!

To become law, the legislation will have to clear three hurdles:

• Pass the House of Commons (presumably in a heavily whipped vote)

• Pass the House of Lords (not subject to the Salisbury Convention since this was not a manifesto pledge)

• Receive Royal Assent (this should be a formality)

Will it pass all three hurdles before Parliament is dissolved for the next General Election?

Note - If the legislation is modified or amended so heavily that it can not be said to be declaring Rwanda as a safe country or a safe place for refugees (eg. If it says that there should be an assumption that it is but that the courts have the power to judge that as a matter of fact), this will resolve to NO.

If you're wondering when the next General Election will be, take a look at this market:

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd