Conservative Party leadership contest - which candidate will get the most votes in the first round of voting?
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33
Ṁ21k
resolved Sep 4
100%97%
Robert Jenrick
0.2%
Mel Stride
0.2%
Priti Patel
0.2%
Tom Tugendhat
0.7%
James Cleverly
1.5%
Kemi Badenoch

The nominations are in and there are six candidates in the running to the next leader of the Conservative Party.

The remaining steps of the contest are planned to be:

  • MPs will vote in multiple rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated (candidates who were close to losing quite often drop out at this point as well) and the others go through to the next round of voting

  • If there are more than four nominees, MPs will vote on candidates to whittle them down to the final four in time for Conservative Party conference

  • The final four candidates will give their pitch at the conference (29th Sep to 2nd Oct)

  • MPs will continue voting to get down to the final two candidates

  • The Conservative Party membership will vote on the final two candidates

  • The new leader will be announced on 2nd November

The first vote among MPs is expected in a few weeks. Who will get the most votes in the first round?

(If two candidates are tied, the market will resolve 50/50)

Related markets:

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The votes are in and Robert Jenrick won the most votes in the first round with 28 to Badenoch's 22 votes.

Full results:

Robert Jenrick: 28

Kemi Badenoch: 22

James Cleverly: 21

Tom Tugendhat: 17

Mel Stride: 16

Priti Patel: 14

This came as an enormous shock to the market. Robert Jenrick was trading at just 0.7% yesterday morning!

I'm proud to say I thought that was crazily good value and managed to get some shares in him at that price... As well as betting NO on Badenoch when she was trading at 91% yesterday and 90% today!

With Patel's votes up for grabs and both Stride and Tugendhat looking like they're on thin ice, who will top the second vote? And who will be out next?

/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-7w541i7h36

/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-iuax32jnea

bought Ṁ100 NO
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