Conservative Party leadership contest - which candidate will get the most votes in the first round of voting?

The nominations are in and there are six candidates in the running to the next leader of the Conservative Party.

The remaining steps of the contest are planned to be:

MPs will vote in multiple rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated (candidates who were close to losing quite often drop out at this point as well) and the others go through to the next round of voting
If there are more than four nominees, MPs will vote on candidates to whittle them down to the final four in time for Conservative Party conference
The final four candidates will give their pitch at the conference (29th Sep to 2nd Oct)
MPs will continue voting to get down to the final two candidates
The Conservative Party membership will vote on the final two candidates
The new leader will be announced on 2nd November

The first vote among MPs is expected in a few weeks. Who will get the most votes in the first round?

(If two candidates are tied, the market will resolve 50/50)

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