
There will be two by-elections on 15th February:
Kingswood - /Noit/which-party-will-win-the-kingswood
Wellingborough - /Noit/which-party-will-win-the-wellingbor
Reform UK have polling well for the past few weeks, nationwide opinion polls show them at 10% to 12%. But they have never translated this into success in real elections.
Wellingborough looks like the perfect seat for them - there was a huge Tory vote at the last election and the voters have had no problem voting for an extremist like Peter Bone. The Conservative Party candidate in this election is absolutely awful, so the Tory voters are ripe to vote for a protest candidate.
Will the Reform candidate (Ben Habib) get more votes than the Conservative candidate (Helen Harrison)?
Related markets:
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/SimonGrayson/15th-february-byelections-what-will
/SimonGrayson/how-many-seats-will-the-uk-conserva
/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
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