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15th February by-elections - What will Labour's total winning margin be?
9
Ṁ395Ṁ2.7k
resolved Feb 16
100%99.0%
30-40%
0.1%
Overall net loss
0.1%
0-10%
0.1%
10-20%
0.5%
20-30%
0.1%
40-50%
0.1%
50%+

There will be two by-elections on 15th February:

Kingswood - /Noit/which-party-will-win-the-kingswood

Wellingborough - /Noit/which-party-will-win-the-wellingbor

These were previously pretty safe Conservative seats, but Labour are the favourite in each of these two seats.

What will be their total winning margin, adding together their winning margin in the two seats?

Market notes:

  • This is the total of the two figures, not an average!

  • The figure is based on Labour's winning margin over the party which comes in second place. So if both seats are Labour 50%, Conservative 42%, Others 8%, the total would be 16%.

  • If Labour win one seat and lose the other, the calculation will be based on their winning margin in their winning seat minus the gap between Labour and the winner in the other.

  • If Labour lose one seat by more than they win the other, or if they lose both seats, this market will resolve to "overall net loss"

Related markets:

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/SimonGrayson/how-many-seats-will-the-uk-conserva

/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd

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Labour's margin in Kingswood - 10.0%

Labour's margin in Wellingborough - 21.3%

Total - 31.3%

So this resolves to 30% to 40%!