There are about 4,000 political appointees, a majority of which are replaced by a new president, normally.
Schedule Policy/Career (formerly named Schedule F) is a planned executive order by the Trump team to replace about 50,000 state employees to seize control over various parts of the government
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schedule_F_appointment
The 10,000 replacements must be unique positions.
This will resolve based on credible media reports.
I will not bet in this market in case resolution is controversial
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Clarification:
All appointments count regardless of the legal method used.
A name change (e.g., from Schedule F to Schedule Policy/Career) does not affect the resolution criteria.
Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date extended until Q1 2026 to allow for data from FedScope and/or the Plum book to become available.
Positions that will be counted:
Policy/Career appointments (formerly Schedule F)
Schedule G appointments
Traditional Schedule C appointments (the usual ~4,000 political appointees)
Both Policy/Career and Schedule G are non-career positions without civil service protections, managed by the White House Office of Presidential Personnel (PPO).
1,000People are also trading
@traders I'm extending the market until data from FedScope and/or the Plum book is available, probably Q12026.
It took me a bit to figure out which positions to count since they implemented 2 new schedules (Policy/Career & Schedule G) as well as fire and replace a lot of people. I will count both Policy/Career and Schedule G: both are non-career positions that don't have civil service protections and are managed by the White House Office of Presidential Personnel (PPO). The traditional 4,000 Schedule C appointments will also still count of course.
Wikipedia defines political appointments as:
"any employee who is appointed by the President, the Vice President, or agency head".
This is the definition for the market also. Right?
Schedule Policy/Career (formerly named Schedule F) is a planned executive order by the Trump team to replace about 50,000 state employees to seize control over various parts of the government
What's the source for for 'to replace'? Wikipedia says the 50,000 employees are planned to be reclassified, not replaced.
I would assume Trump just wants them to be easier to fire.
@Shai that was my interpretation at the time. Nonetheless, it doesn't materially affect the market resolution which is still about 10,000 unique political appointees
@Siebe On second thought it makes sense that if an administration has the ability to swap out employees it would either do so or fire them.
I presume a mere name change doesn't affect the market. Currently the program is no longer known as Schedule F but Schedule Policy/Career. Maybe clarify that it still quacks like Schedule F and waddles like Schedule F... @Siebe
@JussiVilleHeiskanen it's purely about appointments, no matter which legal method is used, so a name change definitely doesn't affect things. Thanks for the heads up though! Lots happening