How many government employees will Trump and Elon cut in 2025? [Kalshi] | Manifold

How many government employees will Trump and Elon cut in 2025? [Kalshi]

24

1kṀ15k

Feb 1

182,434 people

expected

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

1.8%

Above 500,000

1%

Above 1,000,000

Resolves identically to https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfedemployees/federal-government-employee-count.

Compares the count of federal employees no longer working, relative to the January 2025 employee count. Outcome verified from FRED.

Market context

Trump's Second Term

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The linked market is open through February 1:

This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Feb 1, 2026 at 10:00am EST.

Extending to match

@Gabrielle the top three options have all resolved yes on kalshi

@polymathematic Thanks for informing me!

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How many entire government agencies will be eliminated by within one year of Trump taking office?

Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026

If Trump wins the 2024 election, how many government employees will he fire using Schedule F by the end of his term?

Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 100,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Will Trump/Elon actually decrease deficit spending by more than 1T?

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