Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?
➕
Plus
34
Ṁ14k
2027
35%
chance

This will resolve based on a holistic assessment, but the following factors could contribute to a YES resolution:

  • Increase in absolute number of H1B visas granted

  • No decrease in O-1 visas, or an increase

  • Increase in absolute number of EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 visas

  • Other pathways for high skill individuals to get visas, like work authorization

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bought Ṁ3,150 YES

It would be fantastic pro-growth policy but it would rub against the nativist elements of the Republican base and the the GOP's anti migration narrative. On the contrary Trump's senior advisor has stated that they plan to start a mass denaturalization program for foreign born citizens.

https://x.com/StephenM/status/1712094935820780029?lang=en

@DanW Trump said during his victory speech that the US needed lots of immigrants. There is no conflict between denaturalizing e.g. Hamas supporters and opening up pathways for high-skill immigration and no real conflict between reducing illegal immigration and increasing net immigration.

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 10% order

@skibidist However I am a hardcore Musk fan and a MAGA/Project 2025 person, so you should ignore what I say and hit my limit orders!

@skibidist After thinking a bit more, conflating all immigration as the same is a liberal cognitive distortion stemming from the ingrained incorrect belief that all cultures all equal. Projecting this belief onto MAGA administration, which does not share it, will produce an incorrect model of the world.

@skibidist Based on these statistics we should deport all the non-immigrants who are barely founding any Fortune 500 companies given their huddled mass.

@MartinRandall Part of the reason for going to Mars is to start a society free of low performers.

@skibidist and there is no ethical, moral or legal problem with deporting illegal immigrants. None.

bought Ṁ30 YES

It would make sense, but it's unclear how that would pass congress / somehow fit the party's messaging

@MalachiteEagle I don't think he needs congress?

@MartinRandall

apparently so

@MalachiteEagle I think this shows some of the scope for executive action and regulatory changes. Yes, the headline number of H1B visa executive actions is fixed by law but the H4 EAD that allows their spouses to work was created by executive action by Obama.

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