This will resolve based on a holistic assessment, but the following factors could contribute to a YES resolution:
Increase in absolute number of H1B visas granted
No decrease in O-1 visas, or an increase
Increase in absolute number of EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 visas
Other pathways for high skill individuals to get visas, like work authorization
1,000People are also trading
it is of course helpful to look for hard numbers because systematic trends can swamp specific policy choices along the way, but if you asked the "high-skill immigrants" that i know whether trump has "significantly expanded" their path in the US, they would universally baffled to see this still at ~35%.
@jcb True, but who do you think would be higher skilled, a randomly selected H1b recipient or someone with the $5m gold card? I know what I'd bet on haha.
@JamesGrugett Would you resolve this as Yes if the "Gold Card" plan, or a similar wealth-based immigration scheme, is implemented before the end of 2026?
@Twig Not necessarily -- the total number of high skill immigrants needs to increase (significantly).
The gold card might only increase it marginally, or another route, like o1 could be throttled which would lead to less high skill immigration.
My reasons for yes:
1. 71% of Republicans are in favor of more high skilled immigration (https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/09/27/trump-and-harris-supporters-differ-on-mass-deportations-but-favor-border-security-high-skilled-immigration/) .
China's core advantage over the coming years is their considerably higher no. of STEM workers (see Steve Hsu's excellent writing on this). Once this becomes apparent to DC there will be broad bi-partisan support to expedite this
Elon & other tech allies in his inner circle are staunchly in favor
It aligns with the expansionist / pro-growth vision of Trump's second term
@skibidist I suspect if Trump could stop it & he does not that serves as an implicit endorsement & therefore could be attributed to Trump
It would be fantastic pro-growth policy but it would rub against the nativist elements of the Republican base and the the GOP's anti migration narrative. On the contrary Trump's senior advisor has stated that they plan to start a mass denaturalization program for foreign born citizens.
@DanW Trump said during his victory speech that the US needed lots of immigrants. There is no conflict between denaturalizing e.g. Hamas supporters and opening up pathways for high-skill immigration and no real conflict between reducing illegal immigration and increasing net immigration.
@skibidist However I am a hardcore Musk fan and a MAGA/Project 2025 person, so you should ignore what I say and hit my limit orders!
@skibidist After thinking a bit more, conflating all immigration as the same is a liberal cognitive distortion stemming from the ingrained incorrect belief that all cultures all equal. Projecting this belief onto MAGA administration, which does not share it, will produce an incorrect model of the world.
@skibidist Based on these statistics we should deport all the non-immigrants who are barely founding any Fortune 500 companies given their huddled mass.
@MalachiteEagle I think this shows some of the scope for executive action and regulatory changes. Yes, the headline number of H1B visa executive actions is fixed by law but the H4 EAD that allows their spouses to work was created by executive action by Obama.