Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026
1
100αΉ1002027
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce. Will 2026 bring similar results?
I will subtract the January 2026 reading of federal employee count from the January 2027 reading using the FRED federal employee counts given here:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001
If the difference exceeds 100,000 the answer resolves yes, and no otherwise.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Trump & Elon cut >250,000 government employees in 2025?
11% chance
How many Trump Admin Cabinet members will be resigned or fired by the start of 2026?
Will at least 50% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?
36% chance
Who will leave the Trump Administration in 2025?
How many government employees will Trump and Elon cut in 2025? [Kalshi]
92,054
Federal government employment decreases by >500,000 before January 2026
2% chance
Schedule F: if Trump is elected, will he appoint more than 10,000 people in 2025?
18% chance
Will at least 25% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?
77% chance
Will Donald Trump sign more than 300 Executive Orders in 2025?
14% chance
Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025?
1% chance