Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if no candidate obtains more than 50% of valid votes in the first round on January 18, 2026, triggering a second round scheduled for February 8, 2026. A candidate must receive a majority of votes (50% plus one vote) to be elected; if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round, a runoff election held between the two candidates who receive the most votes in the first round must be held. The market resolves NO if any candidate wins more than 50% in the first round. Resolution will be determined by official results from Portugal's Constitutional Court or the National Elections Commission (CNE).

Background

The incumbent president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term. Since the Carnation Revolution, there has only ever been a single runoff election, in the 1986 Portuguese presidential election. A record 11 qualified candidates are contesting the presidency, reflecting a fragmented political landscape and growing voter dissatisfaction with traditional parties. The latest opinion poll credits André Ventura with 20% of the vote, Luís Marques Mendes with 19%, António José Seguro with 17%, Henrique Gouveia e Melo and João Cotrim Figueiredo with 16%; given the low reliability of polls in Portugal and the narrow margins between these five candidates, it is difficult to know who will qualify for the second round.

Considerations

Approximately 35% of voters remain undecided, and actual results may differ significantly as undecided voters make their choices. This election is unlikely to produce a successor to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the first round, which would be a first since 1986.