Resolution criteria

The Portuguese presidential election will be held on January 18, 2026. This market resolves YES if the combined vote share of the top two candidates in exit polls reaches 50% or higher. This market resolves NO if their combined share falls below 50%.

Resolution will be based on exit polls released by Portugal's three main television channels (RTP, SIC, and TVI) on election day. If exit polls differ significantly, the average of the three will be used. The market resolves based on the first-round exit polls only.

Background

11 million Portuguese citizens will vote in the first round, with a second round between the two leading candidates held on February 8 if no candidate wins more than 50% + 1 vote. Recent polls show Ventura expected to lead the first round with around 21% of the vote, followed closely by Seguro at 20% and Figueiredo at 19%. Given the low reliability of polls in Portugal and the narrow margins between these five candidates, it is difficult to know who will qualify for the second round.

Considerations

This election is unlikely to produce a successor to Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the first round, which would be a first since 1986. Approximately 35% of voters remain undecided, and actual results may differ significantly from declared voting intention. The fragmented field with eleven candidates running makes predicting the top two's combined share particularly uncertain.