Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the official results of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election. Each candidate option will resolve as YES if that person is elected president, NO if someone else is elected.
Background
The Portuguese presidential election is scheduled for January 25, 2026, with a possible second round on February 15, 2026 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round.
Current polling suggests António Guterres (current UN Secretary-General and former Prime Minister) is a frontrunner with approximately 19.3% support, though he has not officially declared his candidacy.
Among the listed candidates:
André Ventura: Leader of the far-right party CHEGA who has officially announced his candidacy
Henrique Gouveia e Melo: Former Chief of Staff of the Navy who led Portugal's COVID-19 vaccination campaign
Luís Marques Mendes: Political commentator and former leader of the Social Democratic Party
António Vitorino: Former European Commissioner and Minister of Defense
António José Seguro: Former Secretary-General of the Socialist Party
António Sampaio da Nóvoa: Academic who ran in the 2016 presidential election
Paulo Portas: Former Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the CDS-PP party
Other potential candidates like Pedro Passos Coelho (former Prime Minister) may also enter the race but are not currently listed as options.
Considerations
The election is still over a year away, and the field of candidates may change significantly. Additional candidates may declare their intention to run, and some current potential candidates may withdraw.
Update 2025-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only One Winning Outcome: Only one candidate option will resolve as YES.
January Election Only: The market resolution is based solely on the results of the January election.
Historical Context: Past instances of multiple elections in a year were exceptional and are not applicable here.
Anticipated Elections: Anticipated or off-schedule elections are not considered.
1,000@TheAllMemeingEye correct, only one option resolves yes
There never happened two elections in the same year in Portugal yet, there was a case of two elections less than a year apart but it was because the country had just come out of a dictatorship;
There also only happened anticipated elections once;
Either way, this is only considering the January Elections.