This market will resolve based on publicly available preliminary vote count updates published on January 18, 2026, before 12:00 p.m. local time in Portugal, by the Portuguese National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) or by major Portuguese news outlets explicitly citing official provisional counts (e.g. RTP, Lusa).

Rules:

The market resolves to the first candidate who strictly exceeds 23.0% of the vote share in any valid preliminary count published before the cutoff time.

If more than one candidate exceeds 23.0% in the same update, the candidate with the highest percentage in that update resolves the market.

Exit polls, surveys, or private projections without counted precincts do not qualify.

If no candidate exceeds 23.0% in preliminary counts before noon (local time in Portugal), the market resolves to “No candidate exceeds 23% before noon.”