https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1718772024217072105

They would have to try and search for all underground bases, like the one under hospital etc.. seems like a 2-month job

Clarification in response to Israeli remarks about the war strategy: If Israel occupies most of Gaza, but Hamas retains significant territorial control, this will not count despite of how long it takes. However, if Israel occupies the vast majority of the strip, and the situation devolves into a guerilla war, with occasional Hamas attacks, and Israel being unwilling to leave for months, this will resolve YES.

I hope this doesn't make things more confusing. I'm just trying to work the criteria out from the spirit of the question, which was to see if Israel would get "bogged down" in Gaza, the same way we did in South Lebanon and the US did in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Why is this market so much higher than this?

https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-gaza-be-under-complete-militar

Will Gaza be under complete military occupation by Israel during 2023?

52% chance. No part of the territory left uncontrolled by Israeli forces, in the sense that 'control' is typically applied in these kinds of situations.

@Shump This market gives israel over a year to do it. That one is by end of 2023.