Who will control Gaza 6 months after the war and how?
2k
2025
9%
Hamas, status quo
22%
Hamas, with significantly reduced control (including significant loss of territory)
0.4%
Hamas, significantly increased control (no blockade, anything up to independence)
43%
Israel, occupation
4%
Israel, annexed
11%
PLO (Fatah), as part of the Palestinian authority
0.8%
Other Anti-Israel Palestinian regime
8%
Arab puppet regime
2%
Other

6 months after the current Israel-Hamas war ends, which option will most closely describe the political situation in the Gaza strip?

I expect ambiguity to be probable in resolving this, so I will not bet on this market. I will resolve to the option that most closely describes the situation, and possibly give a PROB resolution if the situation is a mix of options, with 25% granularity (this means that each option can only resolve PROB at 0, 25, 50 and 75 percent). The Other option here is a wildcard for other unexpected scenarios, such as Egyptian control, but will not be used if the other answers only approximately fit. Expect me to be biased against that option, as I want this market to be more specific.

Option-specific clarifications:

  • A return to the current situation will resolve as Hamas, status quo

  • An occupation similar to that in the A/B zones in the West Bank, where local authorities have economic control, will not resolve to Israel, occupation, but rather to PLO or Arab puppet regime, most likely. Israel, occupation is used to describe something more akin to the pre-Oslo situation in Gaza, or whatever is in the C areas.

  • Israel, occupation, requires economic control over a significant amount of Palestinians. If Israel takes some territory from Hamas, evacuates most Gazans from it, and just uses it to exert military control, this will only resolve to Hamas, significantly reduced control.

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Arab puppet regime

How important is the "puppet regime" qualifier? What if it's just a multinational coalition led by Arab countries?

@PlainBG You mean governed by foreign countries such as Egypt? Like the example I gave, that's "Other". The puppet regime option has to be installed by Israel and depend on Israel's favor to rule

bought Ṁ1 of Arab puppet regime YES

Does Mohammed Dahlan or Marwan Barghouti personally governing Gaza count?

@manifoldaccount see comments below. It depends on how they rule

bought Ṁ10 of Israel, occupation YES

What exactly is meant by "end of war"?

@marketwise I'll defer to whatever date is on the Wikipedia page for the war. Note that this means the war can be quite long.

If you think I missed any important option, please let me know and I'll add it. I hereby promise I will only allow myself to add options within a week after this opens, to avoid surprises to traders.

@Shump What about adding "UN protectorate or transitional authority" similar to what took place in Cambodia and Kosovo?

@Shump Many have speculated on a return of Mohammed Dahlan to rule post-Hamas Gaza. Unclear to me which option this fits into.

@AmHa If he's part of a wider PLO government or stays affiliated with them, then PLO. Otherwise most likely Anti-Israel Palestinian regime, unless he makes some kind of deal with Israel that makes him a puppet governor.

As long as the Other option is <10%, I don't see much of a reason to split it. I personally don't think the UN option is likely enough to deserve a split, but if enough people think so we can do that.

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