Will the blockade on Gaza end before 2026?
Will the blockade on Gaza end before 2026?
11
178Ṁ8792026
9%
chance
1H
6H
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Following the Hamas coup in 2007, Israel and Egypt began blockading the Gaza strip, placing restrictions on trade and travel. These restrictions have varied heavily over the years. More information can be found below:
This resolves yes, if the blockade by Israel or Egypt is lifted (for at least three months) before 2026. If the blockade ends at the end of 2025, I will wait 3 months before resolving the market.
The blockade is considered as lifted based on designation by reliable media. It will also resolve yes if I determine that either Egypt or Israel allow (for at least 3 months) for all goods and people to travel through their border without significant restrictions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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