Resolves YES if Israel succeed in controlling all the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, as shown in 'The New Middle East' map by Netanyahu at the United Nations General Assembly on September 22, 2023.
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@Quadrifold Israel has never annexed them. How will this resolve if Israel reoccupies Gaza, doesn't withdraw from the West Bank, and annexes neither?
@ElmerFudd Yeah I wouldn't bet on this market because it's unclear what the resolution criteria are.
@nathanwei what is unclear? I'm talking about a certain point in the future where Israel govt controls all the area that was known as the British Mandate for Palestine
@Quadrifold The ambiguity is whether occupation counts for this market or if it requires annexation. Like right now Israel occupies Ramallah but hasnโt annexed it / doesnโt claim it as part of Israel.
@ElmerFudd Need to be claimed, as it's occupied now as some point in the future could be claimed.
@Quadrifold Let me try to rephrase what people have been asking - If this were to be resolved today, according to the current situation, would you resolve this YES? Why or why not?
@Quadrifold Not sure what "claimed" means here. Do you mean annexed? As in, the normal laws of Israel apply to the residents of those areas?
@Shump I mean when the official map (eg. Google Maps as well) will include only Israel and remove all the Palestinian territories.
@Quadrifold But that's ambiguous. There is no official map. Israeli maps usually indicate Palestine in a certain way that shows the situation in the West Bank and Gaza in some way.
Why not just change the description to annexation? I feel like that's what you're going for, and that's a more clear definition.
@Shump But what counts as annexation? Israel unilaterally claiming those areas? What about the Palestinian people? Would you require them to get Israeli citizenship (e.g. people in Crimea got Russian citizenship and passports back in 2014) for it to be an annexation?
@mariopasquato Annexation is pretty clearly defined in international law. It means applying the ordinary laws of the country to everyone living in that territory. If Israel was to annex the territories right now, it would mean giving everyone citizenship, because that's the law. However, it's possible that the law changes to exclude certain people from having citizenship, which would certainly not be democratic, and would require the legal revolution to succeed, but that could allow annexation without citizenship.
@Quadrifold Claimed is also ambiguous. Whether or not Israel claims the West Bank right now depends on your definition of claim.
@mariopasquato not if annexation go hand in hand with expulsion of Gaza residents and replacement with new settler colonial israeli
@Quadrifold Where would the 2.3 million residents of Gaza move to? Even if they wanted to or were forced to move, Egypt does not look like itโs going to take them.
@mariopasquato that's what the world is asking to Israel (and the US) but there's no answer yet. It also seems very hard that they will go back as normal in a Palestinian Gaza as before.
@Shump
> If Israel was to annex the territories right now, it would mean giving everyone citizenship, because that's the law.
That is extremely not the case. Jordanian citizens living in the occupied parts of Jerusalem that Israel liberated in 1967 (including the Old City) were given the option of Israeli citizenship โ most didn't take it. They are granted permanent residency, though.
Just because Russia hands passports as if they were free kitties does not mean there is any legal requirement for an annexing power to give citizenship to the people living there.
@BrunoParga not if they kill, starve or kick out. That's what is happening in Gaza, so not excluded for the West Bank.
@BrunoParga You have give them the legal option to get citizenship, yes. Whether they use it or not is irrelevant. That's a basic requirement for annexation, and the supreme court will uphold it if any other annexation were to happen.
@Quadrifold The republic of china officially includes the mainland but really controls only the island of Taiwan. How would that resolve?
@mariopasquato good point. As Taiwan (ROC) is a very unique example I guess their constitution is tricky to use as a metric here. Let's say that when Israeli citizens will be able to move freely and settle in any part of Gaza strip the way they can do in Tel Aviv, the market will resolve YES