Conditional on Trump being elected, how many H1B recipients will be admitted in the USA in 2026?
3
Ṁ10kṀ2.2k2027
368,724
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on numbers from the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Immigration Statistics (or their successor).
If the H1B changes name, I'll resolve based on the name of a successor, ie a temporary visa for guest workers in specialty occupations.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
People are also trading
Related questions
How many non-immigrant visas will the U.S. Issue in FY 2025
11m
Schedule F: if Trump is elected, will he appoint more than 10,000 people in 2025?
11% chance
Will Trump significantly expand high-skill immigration by the end of 2026?
17% chance
If Trump wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
10% chance
Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2027?
17% chance
Will the number of employment-based green cards awarded in 2025 be lower than 160,000?
83% chance
Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2028?
36% chance
US issues 85k new H-1B visas in FY2027? (Conditional on 100k fee implementation)
49% chance
Revenue from H1b visa fees, 2026?
5,500
If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
50% chance