If Biden wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
If Biden wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
resolved by
9
240Ṁ493resolved Sep 4
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The resolution source is the Southwest Land Border Encounters series by the US border Patrol.
If Biden does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A.
I will use the number shown on the site upon release of the data for all of FY 2025. Note that it appears that this dataset does get updated retroactively. The earliest available data will be used (excluding projections)
Partner market for Trump:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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