If Biden wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
9
26
240
2026
45%
chance

The resolution source is the Southwest Land Border Encounters series by the US border Patrol.

If Biden does not win the US 2024 elections, this market resolves N/A.

I will use the number shown on the site upon release of the data for all of FY 2025. Note that it appears that this dataset does get updated retroactively. The earliest available data will be used (excluding projections)

Partner market for Trump:

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