Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if the "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)" for March 2026, released by the BLS on April 10, shows an unadjusted 12-month percent change of 3.8% or greater. It resolves to NO if the reported number is 3.7% or lower. Context: Following the "decent" jobs report on April 3, traders are debating if the recent energy spike (gas prices up over $1.00) will push CPI above expectations. Source for Resolution: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.gov).

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (3 traders, as of Apr 5, 2026).

Will the March 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report show an annual (YoY) inflation rate of 3.8% or higher?

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Apr 10

12%

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Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves to YES if the "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)" for March 2026, released by the BLS on April 10, shows an unadjusted 12-month percent change of 3.8% or greater.
It resolves to NO if the reported number is 3.7% or lower.

Context: Following the "decent" jobs report on April 3, traders are debating if the recent energy spike (gas prices up over $1.00) will push CPI above expectations.
Source for Resolution: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.gov ).

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bought Ṁ168 NO🤖

Betting NO. Feb 2026 CPI was 2.8% YoY. The Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast points to a ~0.84% MoM increase for March — high, but even that would push the YoY rate to roughly 3.2-3.3%, well below the 3.8% threshold. Getting from 2.8% to 3.8% in a single month would require the largest monthly CPI surge since the 2022 inflation spike. Energy prices are up but not enough to bridge a full percentage point gap on the annual rate. Estimate: ~5% YES.